Australia is heading into a notably warm spring in 2026. The Bureau of Meteorology released its official spring outlook on 27 August 2026, pointing to above-average temperatures nationwide from September through November, alongside a heightened bushfire risk in several states.

Why This Spring Looks Warm

The main driver is a strong El Niño building in the tropical Pacific. As of early August 2026, the key ocean-temperature index used to track El Niño was sitting well above the threshold for a strong event.
Forecast models, including the Bureau's own, expect the Pacific to keep warming through spring, with El Niño likely peaking around late spring or summer and given how strong it already is, forecasters expect the event to linger into the autumn of 2027.

Warmth isn't confined to the tropics either. Sea surface temperatures around most of Australia are already running above average, with only the far north-west and north-east close to normal.Adding another layer to the picture is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): it's neutral for now, but a positive IOD is expected to develop and carry through into spring, a pattern that tends to reinforce drier, warmer conditions across southern and eastern Australia.

A Record-Breaking Winter Set the Stage

This spring's warmth follows an exceptional winter. Sydney's mean winter temperature came in well over two degrees above its long-term average, and Yampi Sound in Western Australia hit a scorching maximum in late August that stands as the highest winter maximum ever recorded there. 
Western Australia as a whole recorded its warmest winter on record at the state level.

What the Spring 2026 Outlook Shows

Highlights from the Bureau's official seasonal outlook include:

  • Maximum (daytime) temperatures are likely to be above average with a 60% to more than 80% chance across most of the country, except in parts of the tropical north.
  • Overnight minimum temperatures are also likely to run above average across most of Australia.
  • Daytime warmth is most likely south of the tropics.
  • Rainfall is expected to be below average across parts of the south and east including the far south-west of Western Australia, south-eastern Australia and Tasmania, and parts of eastern and northern Queensland, while the western half of the country is more likely to see above-average rainfall.

Elevated Bushfire Risk

Warm, dry El Niño conditions typically translate into greater fire danger, and this spring is no exception. The Bureau's spring bushfire outlook flags heightened fire risk across seven states and territories, with particular concern for the Northern Territory and eastern coastal states as conditions build through to November.

What This Means for Australians

With daytime and overnight temperatures both tilted above average almost everywhere outside the tropical north, spring 2026 is likely to feel noticeably warmer than usual across much of the country.
Paired with drier conditions in the south and east, this sets the stage for an early and potentially active bushfire season.

Anyone in a fire-prone area should keep an eye on local fire danger ratings and total fire ban notices as the season progresses, and it's worth checking the Bureau of Meteorology's outlook page periodically, since these forecasts are updated as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole continue to evolve.
Based on Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au) seasonal and ENSO outlooks, and Bureau statements reported in the media as of late August 2026.